**Cocoa Prices Rise Amid Mixed Demand and Supply Conditions**
As of today, July ICE NY cocoa (CCN26) has increased by $10 (+0.28%), and July ICE London cocoa #7 (CAN26) has risen by $11 (+0.41%). London cocoa reached a 2.5-month high, bolstered by steady consumer demand amid positive earnings from major chocolate producers Hershey and Mondelez International. However, North American cocoa grindings fell by 3.8% year-over-year to 106,087 metric tons (MT) in Q1, and European grindings saw an even larger drop of 7.8% year-over-year to 325,895 MT, marking the lowest level for a first quarter in 17 years.
Support for cocoa prices also stems from expectations of a reduced global surplus. StoneX has revised its 2026/27 cocoa surplus estimate down to 149,000 MT, a significant decrease from the previous forecast of 267,000 MT, largely due to potential impacts from an El Niño weather event on West African cocoa crops. Meanwhile, inventory levels have risen to a 20-month high of 2,646,450 bags in recent weeks, possibly dampening price increases further.
Cocoa supply conditions are mixed: the Ivory Coast reported cocoa shipments of 1.51 million MT, reflecting a slight increase of 0.7% from the previous year. In contrast, Nigerian exports fell 4.6% year-over-year to 40,110 MT, and projections indicate a potential 11% decrease in Nigeria’s cocoa production for 2025/26. Although current supply levels are stable, insufficient rainfall has heightened drought concerns in key regions, further complicating the market outlook.
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