September ICE NY cocoa (CCU26) closed down 390 points (-6.04%) and September ICE London cocoa #7 (CAU26) down 306 points (-6.37%) on September 1, 2023. The decline in cocoa prices follows robust supply data from the Ivory Coast, which reported shipments of 2.07 million metric tons (MMT) for the current marketing year, marking a 21% increase from the previous year.
Cocoa inventories in the ICE reached a nearly two-year high of 3,151,790 bags, contributing to bearish price trends. Furthermore, forecasts indicate a weaker harvest for the 2026/27 season, estimated at 1.8 MMT, an 18% decrease from 2025/26 levels, influenced by adverse weather conditions, including potential impacts from the El Niño weather pattern. Notably, North American cocoa grinding fell by 3.8% year-on-year to 106,087 metric tons, while European grinding dropped 7.8%, the lowest in 17 years.
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