July NY world sugar #11 closed up 0.34 cents, or 2.27%, marking a one-month high on Monday. This increase follows a 3% rise in gasoline prices, which may lead sugar mills to prioritize ethanol production over sugar, impacting global sugar supplies. Last Friday, Green Pool Commodity Specialists revised their global sugar deficit estimate for 2026/27 to -4.30 million metric tons (MMT) from -1.66 MMT due to it.
In Brazil, sugar production for the 2026/27 season is projected to decrease by 0.5% to 43.95 MMT, with a reported 11.9% year-over-year drop in production in early April. The shift from sugar to ethanol is also evident, as Brazilian mills have reduced their cane crushing for sugar to 32.9% from 44.7% last year. The USDA forecasts a 2026/27 surplus in India of 2.5 MMT, the first surplus in two years, while earlier global sugar surplus estimates have also been cut, indicating tightening supplies.
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