On October 12, 2023, sugar prices rose significantly, with New York’s October sugar #11 closing up 2.44% at $16.76 per pound and London’s October white sugar #5 increasing by 2.17% to $517.30 per metric ton. This increase is primarily due to concerns over declining global sugar production, particularly in the European Union and the UK, where production is expected to fall to 14.98 million metric tons (MMT), the lowest in 11 years, according to S&P Global Energy.
In addition, India’s sugar production is at risk due to below-normal monsoon rainfall, currently down 12% as of August 13, with predictions of further shortfalls. Meanwhile, Brazil’s Center-South sugar production dropped by 26.3% year-over-year to 3.903 MMT in June, heightening fears of future supply constraints. Analysts project a global sugar deficit in 2026/27, with estimates ranging from 300,000 MT to 3.3 MMT.
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