Will History Repeat Itself? Bitcoin’s Recovery Sparks Hope in the Crypto Market

The past seven months in the crypto market can be described with one word: disappointing.

In March 2024, Bitcoin hit an all-time high of around $73,000. This peak followed the approval of the first Bitcoin ETFs and was set against the backdrop of the Fourth Halving, both of which were anticipated to drive prices higher. However, since that high point, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have remained in a troubling downtrend, struggling to regain momentum.

Repeated attempts to break out of this downtrend have proven unsuccessful. Every time it seems like a rally is on the way, a setback occurs. Since the high in March, there have been three major failed attempts to break out during May, July, and August.

But signs now suggest a potential breakthrough in the crypto market… this may be the real deal.

The Long-Awaited Crypto Rally

As previously mentioned, the crypto market has faced significant challenges but hasn’t experienced a crashing downfall.

There’s an optimistic perspective, too. October marks the possibility of Bitcoin completing an eighth consecutive month of minimal movement, specifically not moving more than 20%. Since February, Bitcoin has not fluctuated beyond this limit in any given month. Should this trend continue through October, it would underscore a rather unusual pattern.

This behavior is unprecedented for Bitcoin.

Historically, Bitcoin has only recorded one other instance of eight straight months with less than a 20% change, occurring during the summer of 2015. During this period, Bitcoin’s price hovered around $250, with no significant movements. Then, in October 2015, Bitcoin surged nearly 40%, marking the beginning of a significant rally that saw its value more than triple by the end of the following year.

This historical context suggests that when Bitcoin stabilizes at lows, like it has now, significant upward movements can follow. We remain cautiously optimistic that this trend may repeat itself.

In fact, indications of a breakout might already be unfolding.

Final Thoughts

Currently, Bitcoin has risen about 25% from its lows in early September, marking the most significant intraday rally since prices peaked in March.

During this resurgence, Bitcoin successfully reclaimed its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages not just once, but twice.

This development is noteworthy.

In previous failed breakout attempts seen in May, July, and August, Bitcoin was able only to momentarily regain these averages before losing them once again, resulting in continued declines.

However, this fall of 2024 is unique—Bitcoin reclaimed all three major moving averages in late September before briefly losing them again in early October. Yet it has managed to retake these key indicators anew. This marks the first time such movements have occurred since March.

Certain technical indicators suggest this rally could be different from earlier ones this year.

Such a recovery in Bitcoin might signal a broader bullish trend across risk assets, including stocks.

Given these conditions, both the stock and crypto markets seem poised for a potentially significant rally as we approach the holiday season in November and December.

Explore some stocks we find appealing for this upcoming rally.

_{On the date of publication, Luke Lango did not hold (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article.}

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