As of today, May ICE NY cocoa prices increased by $24 (+0.72%) and May ICE London cocoa #7 rose by $14 (+0.56%) amid concerns that a prolonged U.S.-Iran conflict could disrupt global cocoa supplies via the Strait of Hormuz. This situation is elevating importers’ costs due to higher shipping rates, fuel prices, and insurance costs.
Data reveals that cocoa demand is weakening, with North American Q1 cocoa grindings down 3.8% year-over-year to 106,087 MT, and European grindings declining by 7.8% year-over-year to 325,895 MT—marking the lowest Q1 in 17 years. Conversely, Asian cocoa grindings unexpectedly rose by 5.2% year-over-year to 223,503 MT. Nigerian cocoa exports also fell 4.6% year-over-year to 40,110 MT, as the country anticipates an 11% decrease in production for the 2025/26 crop year.
Furthermore, the International Cocoa Organization reported a surplus increase for 2024/25, estimating a surplus of 75,000 MT, while Ghana and Ivory Coast have reduced the prices paid to cocoa farmers significantly—by nearly 30% and 57%, respectively—due to production concerns linked to drought conditions affecting over half of the Ivory Coast and two-thirds of Ghana.
