Global Partners LP GLP is set to release first-quarter results on May 8. The current Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter is a profit of 10 cents per unit on revenues of $5.2 billion.
Let’s delve into the factors that might have influenced the vertically integrated energy partnership’s results in the March quarter. But it’s worth taking a look at GLP’s previous-quarter performance first.
Highlights of Q4 Earnings & Surprise History
In the last reported quarter, the Waltham, MA-based gasoline station and convenience store operator beat the consensus mark on the strong performance of its Gasoline Distribution and Station Operations (“GDSO”) unit. GLP had reported net income per unit of $1.41, outperforming the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 96 cents. Revenues of $4.4 billion generated by the firm also came in 0.4% above the Zacks Consensus Estimate.
Global Partners beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in two of the last four quarters and missed in the other two, resulting in an earnings surprise of 5.9%, on average. This is depicted in the graph below:
Global Partners LP Price and EPS Surprise
Global Partners LP price-eps-surprise | Global Partners LP Quote
Trend in Estimate Revision
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the first-quarter bottom line has remained unchanged in the past seven days. The estimated figure indicates an 85.7% decline year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues, meanwhile, suggests a 29.5% decrease from the year-ago period.
Factors to Consider
Global Partners is expected to have been buoyed by continued robust margin across its GDSO business. During the previous three-month period, GLP reported segment margins of $245.4 million, improving from $223.2 million a year ago. The uptrend is likely to have continued in the to-be-reported quarter, with higher contributions from gasoline distribution primarily due to favorable market conditions.
On a further bullish note, a lower expense structure might have provided more support to GLP’s earnings and cash flows. Global Partners’ operating costs in the fourth quarter edged down 1.7% year over year to $116 million. The downward cost trajectory is likely to have continued in the January-March period primarily due to prudent expense management.
However, a decline in the Wholesale unit profit might have played spoilsport. The metric fell 26.6% year over year in the fourth quarter to $51.9 million. The segment profit is set to have taken a hit in the first quarter too, primarily due to lower product margin from distillates and other oils.
What Does Our Model Say?
The proven Zacks model does not conclusively show that Global Partners is likely to beat estimates in the first quarter of 2024. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of beating estimates. But that’s not the case here.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: Global Partners has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are pegged at 10 cents per unit each.
Zacks Rank: GLP currently carries a Zacks Rank #3, which increases the predictive power of ESP. However, the company’s 0.00% ESP makes surprise prediction difficult this earnings season.
Stocks to Consider
While an earnings beat looks uncertain for Global Partners, here are some firms from the energy space that you may want to consider on the basis of our model:
Permian Resources Corporation PR has an Earnings ESP of +7.48% and a Zacks Rank #2. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on May 7.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Over the past 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Permian Resources’ 2024 earnings per share has moved up 7.1%. Valued at around $13.1 billion, PR has gone up 66.1% in a year.
Enbridge Inc. ENB has an Earnings ESP of +0.85% and a Zacks Rank #3. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on May 10.
The 2024 Zacks Consensus Estimate for Enbridge indicates 2.4% year-over-year earnings per share growth. Valued at around $77.3 billion, ENB has lost 8.4% in a year.
HighPeak Energy HPK has an Earnings ESP of +6.03% and a Zacks Rank #3. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on May 8.
Over the past 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for HighPeak Energy’s 2024 earnings per share has moved up 13.7%. Valued at around $1.8 billion, HPK has lost 13.3% in a year.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.
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Enbridge Inc (ENB) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Global Partners LP (GLP) : Free Stock Analysis Report
HighPeak Energy, Inc. (HPK) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Permian Resources Corporation (PR) : Free Stock Analysis Report
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
