According to a new report by analysts at Goldman Sachs, the recent 30% surge in crude oil prices is not expected to have a significant negative impact on U.S. consumer spending or GDP growth.

Goldman strategists, led by Jan Hatzius, state that the increase in oil prices is relatively small, and any headwinds to GDP caused by higher prices should be partially offset by reduced electricity prices. Additionally, they believe that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to respond by tightening its monetary policy in reaction to these higher prices.

“Compared to the first half of 2008, when oil prices rose by over $40/bbl, and the first half of 2022, with increases of over $45/bbl, the recent $20/bbl increase is much more moderate. Our analysis of retail gasoline prices using futures and wholesale markets suggests that most of the rebound has already taken place,” Goldman wrote in the report.

Industry experts, such as Continental Resources CEO Doug Lawler, argue that crude oil prices are expected to remain high and could reach $120-$150/bbl if new production is not initiated. Lawler made these comments during the American Energy Security Summit in Oklahoma City on Monday.

Similar sentiments were expressed by Chevron CEO Mike Wirth, who believes that without effective policies to encourage increased production, more pressure on prices will be inevitable. Wirth made these statements during the same summit, stating, “We hear people say, ‘We’re back up to record levels of production… With better policy, we would be beyond that.”

After reaching a record high in July, oil production in U.S. shale fields is currently declining, with government analysts predicting a third consecutive monthly decrease in October.